| THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF EAST ASIAN DEVELOPMENT |
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〈ワーキング・ペーパー〉 ICSEAD Working Paper Series 1997-1998 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1997-1998 Note) The ICSEAD Working Paper Series include papers in Japanese.
Vol. 98-20
本稿は，中国における経済中心地の変容，地域間所得格差の変動，人口移動パターンの転換など諸動向の考察を通じて，改革開放以来の中国の地域経済構造の変容に与えたFDIの影響を分析した。主な分析結果は次の通りである。 1) FDIの導入は，中央集権の計画経済体制から市場経済体制への転換を加速し，経済中心地の首都（北京）一極集中から北京・上海・廣東の三極への変容に大きく寄与した。 2) 外資系企業は国内の集団所有企業とともに，地域経済成長の二大牽引役となっている。外資系企業と集団所有企業のシェアが高い地域は，沿海の広東・浙江・江蘇・福建などもともと国内の中間所得水準にある諸省であるが，改革・開放以来最も目覚しい経済成長を遂げた。こうした地域の経済成長が，最初は沿海地域内の格差縮小，引いて全国格差の縮小に寄与したが，90年代に入ってからは，大規模のFDI導入に伴う沿海高所得地域の経済成長とあわせて，沿海・内陸間格差を拡大させたとともに沿海内の低所得地域との格差も拡大させた。その結果，全国格差も大きく拡大したのである。 3) 中国の人口移動パターンは，沿海地域側からみると，改革・開放以前の純流出から改革・開放以降の純流入へと劇的に転換した。沿海の中にも，FDIが集中している広東，上海，北京といった３大経済中心地域は，人口流入の中心地となっており，FDIが人口の内陸から沿海への移動に大きなプル要因として働いていると考えられる。
Vol. 98-19
This paper examines the structure of Japanese import and export behavior for semiconductors by analyzing four pertinent quarterly series, namely; import prices of integrated circuits (ICs), real imports of semiconductors, and wholesale and export prices of ICs in Japan during the 1980:1-1996:3 period.? Real monthly imports of integrated circuits from 1988:1 to 1996:7 are also examined.? The methodology used is that of Perron (1989) wherein he tests the null and alternative hypotheses of a unit root or `trend-stationary` series, respectively, in the presence of possible slope and/or level shifts.The results indicate that real imports of semiconductors appear to have a change in slope in 1986:3, when the first Semiconductor Trade Agreement was signed.In the more limited series of monthly data for imports of integrated circuits, there appears to be an increase in its trend at the start of the second agreement in 1992.? Wholesale prices, import prices and exports prices cannot reject the unit-root null and do not show signs of structural break, though this may be due to the limitations of the procedure.
Vol. 98-18
This paper first shows that shares of foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) in the manufacturing sectors of five Asian host economies (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan) were generally large in terms of exports, small in terms of employment, and moderate in terms of production.? Correspondingly, the average product of labor and export propensities were often significantly higher in foreign MNCs than in local firms.In addition, foreign MNCs tended to be relatively large and to have relatively high average capital productivity, capital intensity, skilled-labor intensity, R&D intensity, profit rates, and import propensities, but relatively low shares of labor compensation in value added, and these differences were also statistically significant in many cases.? Differences between wholly- or heavily-foreign plants and foreign plants with lower foreign ownership shares were also significant in many cases and generally in the same direction as the differences between MNCs and local plants noted above.Differences among MNCs by foreign source were generally small and insignificant in Hong Kong.? In Singapore, European and U.S. firms tended to be larger and characterized by relatively high average labor productivity, capital intensity, profitability, and export propensities, but relatively low shares of labor compensation in value added compared to Japanese and Other Asian firms.
Vol. 98-17
We have presented in this paper a new method of estimating total factor productivity (TFP) and capital stocks simultaneously at the same time, and applied it to the growth accounting of the Chinese economy in the national, regional, and provincial levels. The measurement and analysis of this paper can be summarized as follows. The rapid growth in China for the fifteen years since the Reform and Open-up Policy is mainly due to the high and stable level of capital input, the contribution of which is around 50% of GDP growth. The contribution of labor is small around 15% of GDP growth, and it has been declining steadily. The growth of TFP has been fairly high at the rate around 3~4% with a rising tendency, and its contribution to GDP growth is around 40%. The economic growth of regions and provinces in China also depends heavily on the input of capital. The higher growth in the East region is attributed also to the higher input of capital in the region compared with the Middle and West regions. Between the East and the other two regions, the gap in GDP growth has widened recently during the period of the 8th five-year plan. This is partly due to the capital input promoted further in the East region, but mainly due to the TFP growth accelerated drastically in the East region compared with the other two regions. Again between the East and the other two regions, the gap in per capita GDP has widened remarkable especially in the 1990s. The gap in income within rural households, especially between the West and the other two regions, is a crucial factor to explain this regional income disparity. The level of TFP is also quite important, together with the level of capital, to explain the income disparity in China between regions and provinces. The growth of TFP in each province in the 1990s is closely related with such common factors as the expansion of non-state enterprises, the increase in foreign direct investment and, to a lesser extent, the degree of human development, but it still depends much on the region-specific elements.
Vol. 98-16
This paper examines the question of why the international use of the Japanese yen has not grown in Japan's trade with East Asian countries, applying the theory of pricing-to-market (PTM) to the trade invoicing practices of Japanese exporting firms.Whereas economic interdependence between Japan and East Asia has deepened significantly through investment and trade, yen-invoiced transactions have not increased in the 1990s in Japan's trade with East Asian countries.? Examining the PTM behavior of Japanese firms empirically, we show that Japanese exporters of semiconductors and ICs (integrated circuits) tend to stabilize the export price in the East Asian markets, invoicing their products in the U.S. dollar.Since recent expansion of Japan's investment and trade with East Asia has been facilitated mainly by the semiconductor and IC industry, further increase of yen-invoiced trade is unlikely to be realized given the large weight of this industry in Japan's trade with East Asia.
Vol. 98-15
The present paper looks at the empirical evidence concerning the trade-environment nexus. A large body of estimation approaches has led to inconclusive results. Based on a brief discussion of these contributions the paper will present ways to overcome the existing shortcomings. While this includes extensions to the estimation procedures the emphasis will be on a simulation approach that allows one to quantify the effects of very narrowly defined trade and environmental policy measures.
Vol. 98-14
This paper examines several aspects of the financial crisis in East Asian economies.? First, the paper examines the economic events that preceded the crisis.The major focus is on countries that have been directly involved in the crisis, Japan since the early 1990s and then Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia since 1997.? Special attention is also played to the increasingly important role of China and to interactions among these and other economies in the region.?? Second, the paper examines some of the important economic principles that must be considered to understand the crisis and its evolution.The principles emphasized relate to (1) fluctuations in asset prices and economic cycles, (2) the formulation and implementation of prudent financial sector regulations, and (3) the coordination of economic reforms in the transition from a highly protected, highly regulated economy (such as Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia in the 1980s) to a less protected and less regulated economy.Third, the paper examines prospects for the future resolution of the crisis.? In the short-run the prospects for the most countries in the region, especially those directly affect by the financial crisis, are not very good.?? Furthermore, medium-run prospects for Japan, Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia, are also highly uncertain.An optimistic scenario would suggest that large fiscal stimulus in Japan and prudent policy reform focused on the financial sector in all of these economies could result in a relatively rapid return to modest growth rates.? On the other hand, if Japan?s fiscal stimulus is ineffective or if financial sector reforms in Japan, Thailand, Korea, and/or Indonesia are delayed or ineffective, the scenarios become far more pessimistic.In addition, there are very large differences between the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.? Finally, the rest of Asia will also be affected and China in particular must take care to avoid the same policy mistakes that were made in Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia, as it has several of the same characteristics that these countries had before the crisis.
Vol. 98-13
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has broadened its membership to include nine nations in Southeast Asia, bringing formerly hostile states into the ASEAN fold.?? It has deepened the economic cooperation dimension of ASEAN with the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA).Implementation of AFTA, which will lower tariffs on almost all tradable goods to zero to five percent by the year 2003, has been pushed forward ahead of its original schedule.ASEAN is now in the process of liberalization of commercial services under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS).Though selected service industries have been previously included in economic cooperation arrangements, AFAS represents a more complete effort at extending preferential treatment to services within the region.? This paper examines the theoretical and policy issues in the liberalization of tradable commercial services within a region.In particular, regulatory, technological and related investment policy issues must be considered within a regional trading arrangement that wishes to extend intra-group preferences to tradable commercial services.? Issues of rules of origin, technical standards, and differential investment restrictions necessary to implement preferential trade in services are evaluated.
Vol. 98-12
Export performance weakened in 1997.The 7.3 percent growth rate of total merchandise exports was below the 9.7 percent growth in the previous year.This decline was largely caused by a nearly one percent drop in the value of oil and gas exports.However, non-oil/gas export growth actually improved to 9.8 percent from 9.0 percent the previous year.In volume terms, Indonesian non-oil/gas exports increased by 12.5 percent in 1997 compared with 1996.Imports actually recorded negative growth (-2.1 percent) in 1997, with non-oil/gas imports falling 4.1 percent.Oil and gas imports rose by 9.1 percent in 1997 and coupled with the decline in oil and gas exports, this reduced the sector's contribution to the 1997 trade surplus.? The future growth of non-oil exports is highly uncertain.External demand in Japan and the rest of East Asia has weakened considerably.? Among other things, the competitiveness of Indonesian exports depends upon the extent to which the massive nominal depreciation results in real exchange rate depreciation and upon the effect of the real depreciation of the other Asian countries' currencies.An immediate problem in evaluating Indonesian export performance and prospects is the lack of accurate information on the composition, growth and direction of non-oil manufactured exports.The simplification of the export documentation, while useful, has, unfortunately, resulted in a problem in Indonesian export statistics.A solution to this problem is proposed in this working paper.
Vol. 98-11
This paper proposes to treat a firm's foreign expansion as a process of organizational learning shaped by institutional structures in addition to economic variables at the firm, industry, and country levels. An analysis of the expansion of South Korean manufacturing firms into China between 1987 and 1995 shows that business group experience and emerging institutional norms in the organizational field increase the rate of foreign expansion. Organizational learning variables significantly contribute explanatory power to the model above and beyond economic variables. While the previous experiences of the firm and of other firms in the same group are mutually reinforcing, institutional effects in the home country tend to disappear after firms make their first entry into the foreign country. The implications for the institutional analysis of repeated organizational events are discussed.
Vol. 98-10
The concept of international society is developed on the basis of the Grotian tradition that a society of states contains common bonds that brings order that would not be seen in a mere collectivity of sovereign states. The regime theory has been developed with regard to American hegemonic power and its decline. International society school regards the states system itself as a society, while literatures on international regimes hold that states create a set of principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures in various issue-areas within the states system. Though the two literatures have completely the different backgrounds and adopt different methodology, they treat the same phenomena in the states system that states form a cooperative relationship under the anarchical system in order to preserve international order. An international society is a framework in which states can maintain their sovereignty most effectively. States' commitment to their sovereign existence provides a bedrock for the development of regimes in certain economic or social areas. States in a large framework called an international society seek to create and maintain international regimes in certain issue-areas, with an objective of self-preservation. International society is the bedrock in which international regimes constitute a hierarchy.
Vol. 98-09
This paper provides growth accounting of the Chinese economy in three levels (i.e., national economy, three aggregate regions, and thirty provinces) for the period 1981-1995 covering three five-year plans (i.e., sixth, seventh, and eighth). A new method is developed to estimate TFP (total factor productivity) and capital stocks simultaneously based on the framework of growth accounting. Empirical results indicate the importance of capital input in the rapidly growing Chinese economy, but show the crucial role played by the TFP growth in the widening gap of GDP growth between Eastern and the other regions in recent years.
Vol. 98-08
北京市，遼寧省，山東省（以下は「三省」と呼ぶ）は，共に環渤海経済圏と東部沿海地区に属している。東部沿海地区は中国の三大地区で経済が最も発達した地域である。しかし，三省は，それぞれの地域産業構造の特徴と地域問題を抱えながら，異なる経済パフォーマンスで発展している。本稿では，地域レベルにおける移行経済の観点から三省の地域経済を類型化することを通じて，三省の市場経済移行と地域開発政策の関係を分析する。まず，世界銀行の移行経済指標（国民経済）と日本海外経済協力基金(OECF)や中国の「地域経済の市場化」を測る指標をレビューし，三省の地域経済発展パターンを類型化する。次は，この三省の地域経済発展パターンに影響を与えた地域開発政策を移行経済の観点から比較分析する。最後に，移行経済による地域経済の変容とそれによって生じた三省の典型的地域問題から移行経済による中国の全国地域問題を考察する。
Vol. 98-07
This paper examines the relationship between trade propensities and foreign ownership shares in Indonesian manufacturing in the early 1990s.? The empirical findings strongly suggest that foreign plants tended to have relatively high trade propensities, both in terms of exports and imports, in Indonesian manufacturing in 1990, 1992, and 1994.? Moreover, the results also suggest that plants with high foreign ownership shares had by far the highest export propensities in all years.? However, differences in import propensities among foreign ownership groups were relatively small.? In Indonesia, as in other Southeast Asian economies, it is possible to argue that trade propensities determine foreign ownership shares because Indonesia has a history of allowing exceptions to foreign ownership restrictions for firms that export a large portion of their output.? However, this paper argues that the causation is likely to run from foreign ownership shares to trade propensities because (1) multinational firms have strong incentives to restrict the access of uncontrolled affiliates to their international marketing networks, (2) part of the above-mentioned policy influence is captured in the statistical analysis, and (3) a similar correlation has been observed in Singapore where there are no foreign ownership restrictions of this nature.One important policy implication of this interpretation is that foreign ownership restrictions can reduce the exports of affiliates of foreign multinationals and thereby be costly for the host economy.On the other hand, although of limited importance in an economy like Indonesia, ownership restrictions that discriminate among foreign ownership groups apparently have a much weaker effect on imports.
Vol. 98-06
Vol. 98-05
本稿は恒常所得仮説の共和分的含意である，消費と所得は共和分関係にあるということを日本のデータを用いて検証したものである。先行研究においては，所得として可処分所得を用い，いくつかの国においてこの共和分関係を否定している。本稿では，所得として純キャピタル･ゲインを含んだ概念であるヒックス流の可処分所得を用い，日本において消費と所得の共和分関係が認められることを示す。本稿においては，恒常所得仮説の共和分的含意を検証するために，様々な純キャピタル･ゲイン，したがって様々なヒックス流の可処分所得を計算している。純キャピタル･ゲインは正味金融資産を取得原価ベースで評価するとき，消費と共和分関係にあると考えられる。共和分分析の結果から判断すると，家計は資産を実現主義ベースで評価しているようである。この結果は，もし資産を時価ベースで評価するならば，消費における資産効果の存在と整合的ではないと思われる。
Vol. 98-04
The Tokyo Round was the first attempt to set up new ways to deal with many changes in the trade regime since the end of the war. The most crucial issue in the negotiation was to preserve the liberal ideals embodied in the GATT system against protectionist pressure. Some exponents argue that the Tokyo Round changed the international trading system into a fragmented unstable order. However, the Round not only succeeded in contributing to make the trading system more open and fair by constraining the economic sovereignty of states, but it also became a crucial bulwark against protectionist action. The prevailing approach to explaining the outcome of the Tokyo Round is the hegemonic stability thesis. According to the thesis, the outcome of the Round should have been undesirable to trade liberalisation. In reality, however, the results were cooperative and constructive. The decisive reason accounting for the liberal results is that major trading nations shared liberal values. The orientation toward liberal values is supported by the experience of the interwar period and the empirical fact that high trade performance has promoted economic growth. In addition, growing economic interdependence through intra-industry trade and intra-firm trade has created new trade preference.
Vol. 98-03
Abstract not available
Vol. 98-02
北九州市では素材型産業の代表とも言える鉄鋼業が最も重要な産業としての地位を維持してきたが，経済のグローバル化に伴い近年においてその鉄鋼業は厳しい局面を迎えている。本稿は，北九州市の鉄鋼業についてその市内・国内・国際市場との関係をVARXモデルによって時系列的にシミュレートし，北九州市の産業構造における鉄鋼業の位置づけの変動を所得・雇用などの面で分析したものである。北九州市の鉄鋼業は市外市場に依存しているが，国内の鉄鋼需要産業の海外進出が急速に展開していることに加え，アジアの新興工業地域からの鉄鋼輸出拡大により価格競争が激しくなっている。こうした経営環境に鉄鋼業が圧迫されるにつれて，北九州市の産業構造も鉄鋼業から他の製造業にシフトしていく過程が分析された。
Vol. 98-01
This paper examines the prospects for foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) in Thailand in the late 1990s.After a brief introduction, the paper discusses a few basic conceptual issues, emphasizing the importance of the distinction between MNCs and non-MNCs for economic analysis. The paper then looks at the roles of foreign MNCs in Thailand, showing that foreign direct investment (FDI) of foreign MNCs is a relatively unimportant source of fixed investment financing and only a moderately important source foreign capital in Thailand. In manufacturing, foreign MNCs are shown to be a relatively large source of Thai exports as compared to production or employment, and to account for very large shares of all economic activities in a few important industries, most prominently electric machinery and transport machinery.The paper then takes up the prospects for foreign MNCs in Thailand, emphasizing the strong and positive relationship between FDI and Thailand's GDP.?? Accordingly, the economic slowdown that Thailand is likely to experience in late 1990s will adversely affect FDI.? It is noted, however, that the effects on FDI are likely to be much larger than the effects on employment, production, and exports by foreign MNCs because FDI flows are often highly volatile, production and other related activities are much more stable.However, the extent of Thailand's economic slowdown will have important effects on the level of new investments as well as on the level of withdrawals by foreign MNCs in the medium run.The paper then discusses the substantial problems in Thailand's policy making institutions because these problems are thought to be the major cause of the recent slowdown.The most important principle here is that Thailand must do much more to promote competition in Thailand's markets and increase the competitiveness of Thailand as a location for economic activity.The need for greater competition is most apparent in the financial sector, even though increased emphasis on competition in this sector will likely lead to the bankruptcy of a number of financial institutions.? In addition, the competitiveness of firms operating in Thailand, again both foreign and local, is further undermined by the failure to provide sufficient infrastructure (e.g.,education, transport, and communication) and addressing these deficiencies will remain an important task for policy makers.The paper concludes that Thailand's policy makers will determine the future of foreign MNCs in Thailand but that there is still considerable uncertainty about the ability of Thai policy makers to come to grips with the substantial problems they face.? Will Thailand's present policy makers be unable to make necessary reforms and thereby continue to create a bleak economic outlook for Thailand and foreign MNCs operating in the country?Or will present difficulties be a catalyst to major policy reforms and a brighter economic future, as in Indonesia in the mid-1980s or in Thailand itself in the early 1980s?The jury is still out.
Vol. 97-05
The share of ten East Asian developing economies in world trade in goods has risen sharply between 1990 and 1996, despite a deceleration of growth after 1995. Indications are that East Asian international services transactions are also rising relative to the global trend. The paper highlights the high trade dependence of East Asia and provides a synopsis of the key trade policy issues for these economies at the multilateral, regional and national levels. At the multilateral level these economies have a large stake in the successful implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement, particularly the phasing out of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement. They also have much riding on the outcome of on going World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations in services, the WTO work agenda, and in future directions of the WTO, including membership questions. At the regional level, the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) agenda will influence the regional trading environment. Unilateral liberalization of international trade in goods and services and investment has enabled East Asia to capture the gains from freer international trade. This paper sets forth the author's views as to how East Asian developing countries may advance their commercial interests in a manner consistent with multilateral free trade. Problems of contingent forms of protection such as anti-dumping, restrictive rules of origin and other regulatory issues are addressed in this context.
Vol. 97-04
Abstract not available
Vol. 97-03
本稿は，日本の物価が外国と比較して割高になっているという「内外価格差問題」に関する調査・研究を整理したサーベイ論文である。円高が特に進行した1985年以降，日本の物価が異常に高いという調査結果が各方面から得られており，これが日本市場に何らかの特殊性が存在することによるものではないかという認識が広まりつつある。本稿では，この内外価格差問題について（１）国際政治経済の場でどのような議論が展開されてきたのか，（２）調査結果の解釈にはどういった留意点が必要であるか，（３）経済学のフレームワークではどのように説明されるかの三点から考察している。
Vol. 97-02
日本の貿易黒字は市場の閉鎖性が原因であるとする主張があるが，経済学者の間では貿易収支は貯蓄投資バランスによって決まるものであり，市場の閉鎖性とは無関係であるとする認識が一般的合意として得られている。しかし，これはあくまでも輸出と輸入の差額についてであり，輸出入の水準について何ら言及するものではない。他の先進国と比較した場合，日本の輸入水準はその経済規模と比較して極端に低く，しかも他国の上昇傾向とは裏腹に時系列でほとんど変化していない。これは，日本の輸入構造に他先進国とは異なる特徴を有している可能性を示唆している。本稿は，日本市場の閉鎖性の批判材料としてしばしばとりあげられる輸入依存度と製品輸入比率の時系列での変化を国際比較し，日本の輸入構造の特殊性を探ることを目的としている。一連の考察の中で，近隣に先進国を持たないという日本の立地条件が大きな特徴として浮かび上がる。研究としては初期段階であるが，忌憚のないコメントや批判をお願いしたい。
Vol. 97-01
Abstract not available
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