| THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF EAST ASIAN DEVELOPMENT |
|
|
|
〈ワーキング・ペーパー〉 ICSEAD Working Paper Series 1999 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1997-1998 Note) The ICSEAD Working Paper Series include papers in Japanese.
Vol. 99-24
South Korea and Japan have adopted essentially the same labor institutions: lifetime employment practice, company unionism, and a seniority-based wage and bonus system. Apparently, these institutions have? successfully resulted in a high level of cooperation between Japanese labor unions and management. But Korean labor unions are much more militant and hostile to management than Japanese unions as evidenced by strike intensity data. Why is Korean labor so militant? This research identifies three types of factors responsible for Korean labor militancy. First, among sociopolitical factors are i) the obsolescence of authoritarianism and subsequent abolition of direct government control of labor relations and ii) the dominance of the age-cohort of young assertive workers in theworkforce. Second, the unique features of industrial structure and policy in Korea such as the chaebol system and the availability of low interest bank loans have encouraged union militancy as an unintended consequence. Third, the regulatory and legal environment for labor relations, heavily influenced by governmental paternalism, does not foster development of an autonomous labor relations culture. While the government has given up authoritarian control of labor, it has yet to give up the urge to guide labor relations. What Korea sorely needs in order to resolve the current labor militancy problem is the development of an autonomous labor relations culture. Individual workers and management should learn to bargain and to cooperate? responsibly through direct dialogue..
Vol. 99-23
Miranda, Torres and Ruiz (1998) and Finger (1993) have documented the increased incidence of antidumping in recent years and its spread beyond developed to developing and transitional economies.? Clearly the use of administered protection has in part arisen because of the success of the GATT (and now the WTO) in progressively reducing traditional forms of protection including tariff and non-tariff barriers, particularly in manufacturing.? The "globalization" of antidumping has coincided with a proliferation of regional preferential trading arrangements, including initiatives such as NAFTA and association agreements between the EU and surrounding countries.? The countries that have been the most prolific in launching antidumping cases have largely been members of such discriminatory trading arrangements while the affected (accused) countries have often been outside regional trading blocks.? Moreover, the countries adopting definitive measures against the accused are heavily concentrated among members of powerful regional trading areas.? This study documents and analyzes the asymmetry in antidumping actions, focusing on the propensity of members of regional trading blocks to use antidumping actions against developing countries in East Asia.
Vol. 99-22
The coincidence of banking and currency crises associated with the Asian financial crisis has drawn renewed attention to causal and common factors linking the two phenomena. In this paper, we analyze the incidence and underlying causes of banking and currency crises in 90 industrial and developing countries over the 1975-97 period. We measure the individual and joint ("twin") occurrence of bank and currency crises and assess the extent to which each type of crisis provides information about the likelihood of the other. We find that the twin crisis phenomenon is most common in financially liberalized emerging markets. The strong contemporaneous correlation between currency and bank crises in emerging markets is robust, even after controlling for a host of macroeconomic and financial structure variables and possible simultaneity bias. We also find that the occurrence of banking crises provides a good leading indicator of currency crises in emerging markets. The converse does not hold, however, as currency crises are not a useful leading indicator of the onset of future banking crises. We conjecture that the openness of emerging markets to international capital flows, combined with a liberalized financial structure, make them particularly vulnerable to twin crises. The predictive power of the model is illustrated for Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand.
Vol. 99-21
This paper aims to identify the underlying causes of the Korean economy leading to the 1997 crisis. Its main findings include that the profit rate shows a declining trend for an extended period over a decade before the crisis and its main cause was the continuous and fast deteriorating capital productivity. While policy mistakes on exchange rate management and financial liberalisation were more direct causes to trigger off the crisis, reckless investment behaviours were primarily responsible for deteriorating capital efficiency, which gave mounting stress on the economy and eventually developed to a crisis. The reason behind widespread imprudent investments was the dismantling of the traditional privilege-disciplinary regime of industrial policy from the late 1980s. In order to improve investment efficiency, this study suggests that the reform should focus on devising a mechanism to discipline corporate behaviour through corporate governance reform, if not going back to the past industrial policy regime.
Vol. 99-20
This article examines two issues through an analysis of the Japanese textile industry. The first is how the government and the private sector interact in the face of the rising import pressure. The second is what influence the internationalisation of corporate activity has had on the trade policy preferences of firms. It is shown here that although the government played a particular and critical role in deciding on the direction of import restrictions in the textile industry, the textile producer associations formulated their own preferences according to their status in the industry and their international and domestic linkages, and reflected these preferences on trade policy through their membership on advisory councils and direct lobbying of politicians and relevant ministries. It is also demonstrated that international linkages were crucial factors making apparel and towel makers and textile importers favour an open trade policy. However, big synthetic fibre and spinning companies adopted a protectionist stance in spite of their international linkages. The sought to maintain domestic vertical linkages by restraining imports.
Vol. 99-19
This paper consists of three parts:? (1) Introduction (S. Ichimura); (2) The Characteristics of Transition in the Chinese Economy (S. Ito); (3) Contemporary Status and Prospects of Economic Transition in Far Eastern Russia (K. Miyamoto).? The introduction points out political factors and highlights the dominant influence of overseas Chinese merchants and foreign direct investment. The second part examines the transition of the Chinese economy focusing on changes in industrial structure, labor relations, and the ownership of enterprises. It also points out some difficulties confronted by the transition in China. The third part deals with the transition in the regions of Far Eastern Russia focusing on changes in the industrial and regional composition economic activities as well as changes in commodity composition of the region's trade with Asian countries in the 1990's.
Vol. 99-18
We introduce a new approach to testing the diversity of unobservable consumer preferences in cross-section data. The approach is applied to three international cross-sections with Asian, European and North American countries for a large number of goods and services at three levels of aggregation. At the most aggregated level of consumption, the study found mostly insignificant differences across countries in consumer preferences. On the other hand, at the least disaggregated level we identified a number of commodities with highly unusual national consumption patterns. However, the latter commodities represented a small portion of analyzed commodities, indicating that consumer preferences are broadly comparable across countries.
Vol. 99-17
Abstract not available
Vol. 99-16
Indonesia, Korea and Thailand were the Asian countries most seriously affected by the financial and balance of payments crises that began in Thailand in July 1997.? This study examines the impact of the “twin crises” on international trade and trade-related economic activity with a focus on non-oil/gas imports and exports in the case of Indonesia in the period of 1997 to mid-year 1999.? The severe currency depreciation did result in a real depreciation and a change in relative prices of tradable to non-tradable goods and services in the case of Indonesia.? The resulting rise in net exports in the current account (measured in US dollars) was mainly the result of import compression not export expansion.? The volume of exports expanded, however, weak international prices in US dollar terms meant that the value of merchandise exports declined.? The evidence suggests that export recovery could occur if prices rebound.? Imports of food for household consumption actually increased in 1998 compared with 1997.? Moreover, import compression did not affect all sectors equally.? Textiles and apparel were able to maintain imports and exports at close to pre-crisis levels.? Electrical machinery exports also fell by a smaller amount than one would have expected, given the dependence on imported components.? Changes in the direction of trade were also fairly significant and will require future research to understand fully.
Vol. 99-15
This paper examines currency invoicing of Japan's exports to the East Asian region by applying the theory of pricing-to-market (PTM).?? Contrary to the results of previous literature, we reveal that Japanese exporters of integrated circuits (ICs) and magnetic disks are likely to prefer U.S. dollar-invoiced transactions even in exports to the East Asian region. Given a large presence of the electronics industry for trade and investment between Japan and the East Asian countries, it is hard to expect further internationalization of the Japanese yen in the near future.
Vol. 99-14
This paper has as its objective an evaluation of the claim that moral hazard was at the center of the Asian financial crisis. We found evidence of moral hazard in all three cases: in Thailand's Financial Institutions Development Fund, in Korea's forbearance toward bank excesses, in Indonesia's cronyism. However, we also found that the nature of these guarantees was often highly ambiguous and contested. In Thailand, reformers made efforts to limit government commitments to poorly managed banks and finance companies, but without success. In Korea, both Hanbo and Kia, although for different reasons, thought that they would be supported, but weren't. Similar ambiguities in policy are visible in Indonesia, where Suharto's commitment to protect cronies proved highly uncertain.? We argue that this uncertainty is a crucial element in the onset and depth of the financial crises, as investors come to question the nature of government's policy commitments. In the cases just cited, conflicts among claimants, or between claimants and the government, generated this uncertainty. However, in each case we have isolated broader political factors--although not common ones--that induced uncertainty with respect to the government's stance toward the financial sector, ranging from Thailand's party system, to the breakdown of party coherence in Korea due to electoral competition, to the authoritarianism of the Suharto regime.
Vol. 99-13
Abstract not available
Vol. 99-12
Abstract not available
Vol. 99-11
This paper examines episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of developed and developing countries, highlighting the experience of Japan. By a host of criteria, Japan appeared to be in a stronger position than most countries at the onset of banking problems-low inflation, appreciating currency, balanced government budget, and large external surpluses. However, Japan followed a clear international boom-and-bust pattern in terms of real output growth, credit growth and stock price movements. We estimate a multivariate probit model that links the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics. The model predicts a high probability of banking sector distress in Japan in the early 1990s. In particular, the likelihood of an episode of banking distress rose in line with the sharp drop in asset prices, deepening recession and "moral hazard" problem (financial liberalization combined with explicit deposit insurance). The Japanese case is also noteworthy by the long duration of the banking crisis, the length of the coincident recession and general malaise over the economy, the slow regulatory response, and the long delay in the commitment of public funds to re-capitalize the banking sector.
Vol. 99-10
The crises of the Japanese and Asian economies in 1997-98 are reflection of the regional interdependence. One of the factors contributing to the baht devaluation of July 2, 1997 was yen depreciation vis-a-vis the US dollar in 1995-1997. The weak Japanese economy and the Asian economies mutually reinforced each other in the fall of 1997. Both Japan and many Asian countries suffer from structural weakness in the banking system. Japanese banks are beset with nonperforming loans due to a sharp decline in land prices, and many Asian banks are burdened by excessive borrowing from abroad or nonperforming loans due to sharp currency depreciation. Japan and Asian countries did not have a legal framework to close insolvent banks before the crisis, which contributed to a protracted resolution of the problem. The current downturn of the Japanese economy was triggered by the tax hike of April 1997. The Japanese economy became extremely fragile, when the two large financial institutions failed in November 1997. Uncertainties about the future of banks and other financial institutions depressed the stock prices, which in turn put pressures on bank balance sheets. It forced banks to curtail lending, which further worsen the macroeconomic conditions. Usual counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies do not seem to work in Japan in the second half of the 1990s. As the interest rate became near zero, the effectiveness of monetary policy is limited. Moreover, further expansion of liquidity would weaken the yen. Yen depreciation further depresses the Asian economies. Despite the large devaluation, Asian export booms are yet to come. Japan, a large absorber of Asian exports, is struggling to restore its growth. The weakened banking system cannot provide financing for viable industries. Asian exporters suffer from credit crunch. Restoring a robust financial sector is a number one priority for Japan and many Asian economies.
Vol. 99-09
北九州港は，北部九州・関門地域の国際物流中心機能，内航二次輸送による神戸港へのフィーダー機能，更に市内にある大手鉄鋼メーカー製鉄所の原料輸入・製品搬出機能という三つの役割を担っている。そこで，このような北九州港の取扱量需要の決定要因を，輸出仕向地域の輸入性向，港湾背後圏を含む国内地域の生産動向，そして鉄鋼業市場動向と地元製鉄生産動向，にそれぞれ関わる3つの要因に分類した。これらの説明要因をもとに，北九州港における輸出，輸入，移出，移入の四関数について計量経済学的分析を行った。分析の結果，これら各要因を代表する変数が四関数全てに有意となっており，北九州港の移輸出入取扱量に関する複雑な需要内部構造の概要が明らかになった。
Vol. 99-08
Much of the literature on Asia's financial crisis has focussed on international on region-wide economic weakness in the afflicted countries.? While not disagreeing with such arguments, this paper focuses our attention in another direction: domestic political constraints.? Taking Thailand and Indonesia as case studies, it examines the way in which political institutions, that is, the basic structure of government, had an important bearing on the way in which political leaders responded to the crisis and that this in turn had a powerful negative effect on investor confidence.? In many respects, Thailand and Indonesia (as their political institutions were configured in prior to 1998) represent opposite ends of a spectrum, with Thailand having a highly decentralized political system which tended to produce policy paralysis and Indonesia, by contrast, having a massively centralized system which highly abritrary and variable policy behavior.? At one extreme, investor confidence in Thailand was undermined by the fact timely policy reform was all but impossible, whereas at the other extreme, investor? confidence in Indonesia was undermined by the fact that policy could move in any direction at a moment's notice.? The key to these two diverse political maladies was the institutional framework of government then in place.
Vol. 99-07
Abstract not available
Vol. 99-06
内 容
Vol. 99-05
This paper is a study of the causes of Thai bubble which finally led to the financial crisis in 1997 and the effect of the bubble's collapse on the Thai financial sector especially financial companies and commercial banks. The financial restructuring and the measures of the Thai authorities and the IMF financial and technical assistance as well as some policy suggestions will be discussed.? The events leading up to the speculative attacks on the Thai baht and the eventual decision to float the baht on July 2, 1997 are examined in some detail.? Policy recommendations to spur the recovery of Thailand from its economic debacle are also provided.
Vol. 99-04
This report is designed to provide a better understanding of energy supply and demand situation of China and the relationship between the energy structure and economic growth.
Vol. 99-03
This paper presents basic firm level statistics on Japanese and US firms in the semiconductor industry in the attempt to capture the stylized facts, if any, that exist in the data.? While the data spans from 1980 until 1997, particular attention will be drawn to the period of the Semiconductor Trade Agreement (1987-1996) to search for anomalies that might exist due to the imposition of a market share policy.? Prior to examining the data, some historical background and theoretical predictions are outlined.? This is an exploratory work, which hopes to lead to a more rigorous testing of theory by means of econometric work at some later date.? Comments and suggestions are welcome.
Vol. 99-02
This paper analyzes changes in Japan's economy and the implications of these changes for the Hawaii's economic policymakers.? The paper first overviews Japan's economic situation paying close attention to the consequences of the collapse of the bubble economy and related phenomena.? Japan's fiscal policies are then detailed with a focus on the anticipated effects of the recent fiscal stimulus package.? The paper then turns to structural reforms and other emerging trends in Japan and concludes with a summary of the implications of the trends in Japan for the Hawaiian economy.? The major conclusion is that Hawaii may find itself in a more favorable external environment over the next couple years but there are risks in the global economy that remain with us and that will require careful economic management.
Vol. 99-01
The rules of origin pertaining to preferential trade in textiles and apparel in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are particularly restrictive.? Coupled with the elimination of internal tariffs and quotas, a large margin of preference is conferred upon NAFTA producers of textiles and apparel relative to those in East Asia.? The large price wedge resulting from the preferential reduction in internal trade barriers between members and non-members is expected to divert trade in textiles and apparel from non-members to members of NAFTA. Asian producers of textiles and wearing apparel are most likely to suffer from trade diversion effects of NAFTA. Trade data for the period since implementation of NAFTA are compared with the period before the agreement as a means of establishing whether or not trade diversion may have occurred. An ex post evaluation of NAFTA imports of textiles and apparel compared with imports from a control sector with less restrictive rules of origin is undertaken.? This heuristic study seeks to provide evidence that restrictive rules of origin are indeed diverting substantial amounts of trade in textiles and apparel from low-cost producers in East Asia to producers within NAFTA.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1997-1998
|
| 財団法人 国際東アジア研究センター | |
| 北九州市小倉北区大手町11-4 | |
| Tel 093-583-6202, Fax 093-583-6576 | |
| ©1999- ICSEAD |
